Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Williams wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Williams 41.5% vs Hayes 49.3% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Williams 74.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.0%
Neutral zone
Williams 50.6%
Result
Justin Williams favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Williams
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Williams
Hayes
Last 7: Williams 3-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Williams
2
0
Williams
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Williams
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Williams
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Williams
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
35.5% (155)
50.5% (764)
-15.0%
Power Play
41.2% (85)
53.3% (90)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
38.6% (127)
+61.4%
On penalty kill, Williams has a +61.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Williams is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Williams shoots right. Hayes is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Williams
Hayes
Home
39.5% (114)
49.0% (531)
Away
36.7% (128)
49.6% (450)
By Period
Williams
Hayes
P1
28.6%
52.3%
P2
35.8%
45.8%
P3
48.8%
50.2%
Final 5 min
34.0%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Williams
34.0%▼
37.0%
38.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2019 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Justin Williams |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Justin Williams |
| Mar 8, 2019 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 8, 2019 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Justin Williams |