Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — MacLean shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs MacLean 44.7% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 52.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.9%
Neutral zone
MacLean 51.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Hayes
MacLean
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayes
MacLean
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
MacLean
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
0
1
Hayes
MacLean
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacLean
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
42.4% (238)
+14.2%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
75.0% (4)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
20.0% (5)
+45.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +45.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacLean shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. MacLean is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacLean
Home
58.0% (405)
41.4% (128)
Away
56.1% (433)
43.7% (119)
By Period
Hayes
MacLean
P1
54.7%
49.3%
P2
55.7%
41.6%
P3
60.2%
37.6%
Final 5 min
58.9%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |