Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Patrick 51.0% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 50.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 54.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.0%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Hayes
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
18
(33 meetings)
15
18
Hayes
Patrick
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
1
Hayes
Patrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Hayes
Patrick
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
4
11
Hayes
Patrick
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
50.6% (1,978)
-3.1%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
57.5% (120)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
57.7% (26)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Patrick is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,441).
Home / Away
Hayes
Patrick
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Hayes
Patrick
P1
47.5%
52.9%
P2
47.6%
49.1%
P3
47.9%
51.3%
OT
54.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2019 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2019 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2019 | 2 | 09:47 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 29, 2019 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2019 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 14:39 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |