Scouting Report
Patrik Elias holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.0% vs Elias 40.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 67.5%
Defensive zone
Elias 61.2%
Neutral zone
Elias 53.2%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Hayes
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayes
Elias
Last 5: Hayes 2-3 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Elias
0
1
Hayes
Elias
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Elias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
0
1
Hayes
Elias
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (642)
39.3% (550)
-2.2%
Power Play
32.1% (28)
50.0% (60)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (11)
27.0% (63)
-27.0%
On penalty kill, Elias has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Hayes is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Hayes shoots left. Elias is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Hayes
Elias
Home
36.7% (354)
39.1% (335)
Away
35.8% (327)
39.1% (338)
By Period
Hayes
Elias
P1
33.6%
39.0%
P2
38.3%
35.4%
P3
37.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
36.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
39.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 16:21 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |