Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Rooney shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Rooney 47.8% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 96.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 68.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Tavares
Rooney
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Rooney
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Rooney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Rooney
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Rooney
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Rooney
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
47.0% (319)
+10.7%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
57.1% (7)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
47.1% (87)
+9.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rooney shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Rooney is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Tavares
Rooney
Home
59.7% (610)
45.8% (203)
Away
57.0% (698)
48.6% (210)
By Period
Tavares
Rooney
P1
57.2%
47.2%
P2
58.5%
55.0%
P3
59.4%
37.3%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Rooney
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |