Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +21.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 41.1% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-21.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 92.3%
Defensive zone
Zary 52.8%
Neutral zone
Zary 79.9%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Zary
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zary
Stenlund
Last 6: Zary 1-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Zary
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
3
Zary
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (205)
58.6% (797)
-22.0%
Power Play
41.7% (36)
62.5% (24)
-20.8%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Zary is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Zary shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Zary
Stenlund
Home
38.8% (152)
58.6% (548)
Away
34.8% (89)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Zary
Stenlund
P1
33.3%
60.2%
P2
31.7%
59.1%
P3
47.5%
58.3%
OT
0.0%
58.6%
Final 5 min
32.7%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
37.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |