Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +17.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Stenlund 52.7% (-17.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 92.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 66.3%
Neutral zone
Hughes 75.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Hughes
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hughes
Stenlund
Last 5: Hughes 1-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
3
Hughes
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
58.2% (359)
-23.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
47.1% (17)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
42.0% (150)
-8.7%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Hughes shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Hughes
Stenlund
Home
37.4% (235)
53.6% (261)
Away
33.2% (229)
52.8% (265)
By Period
Hughes
Stenlund
P1
37.1%
55.4%
P2
33.7%
51.5%
P3
34.8%
52.9%
Final 5 min
32.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |