Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.0% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 84.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 85.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Stenlund
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stenlund
Stamkos
Last 6: Stenlund 3-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Stenlund
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Stenlund
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (500)
56.7% (254)
-1.7%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
52.6% (76)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (243)
100.0% (2)
-49.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stenlund is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Stenlund shoots right. Stamkos is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Stamkos
Home
55.5% (346)
51.9% (158)
Away
51.7% (437)
59.8% (174)
By Period
Stenlund
Stamkos
P1
54.4%
56.5%
P2
51.7%
55.0%
P3
54.8%
56.5%
OT
42.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.0%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.4%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 00:23 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |