Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs MacLean 44.7% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 82.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Pavelski
MacLean
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
MacLean
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 MacLean
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
MacLean
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacLean
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
42.4% (238)
+9.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
75.0% (4)
-23.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
20.0% (5)
+8.6%
On power play, MacLean has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacLean shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. MacLean is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacLean
Home
53.1% (339)
41.4% (128)
Away
49.2% (356)
43.7% (119)
By Period
Pavelski
MacLean
P1
53.8%
49.3%
P2
47.8%
41.6%
P3
50.2%
37.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:41 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |