Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.9% vs Carpenter 48.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 64.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 67.7%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 52.4%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
MacLean
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacLean
Carpenter
Last 8: MacLean 4-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
0
MacLean
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
MacLean
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
1
MacLean
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (849)
49.6% (2,027)
-2.4%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
41.5% (41)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
43.9% (467)
+12.8%
On power play, MacLean has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. MacLean is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (315).
MacLean shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
MacLean
Carpenter
Home
46.9% (426)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
48.4% (461)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
MacLean
Carpenter
P1
46.6%
49.6%
P2
49.7%
47.7%
P3
46.5%
48.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:49 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |