Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 46.2% vs Eller 47.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 61.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 53.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
O'Reilly
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Eller
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (238)
45.7% (588)
-1.2%
Power Play
48.3% (29)
61.1% (18)
-12.8%
On power play, Eller has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (179).
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Eller
Home
50.9% (112)
48.3% (329)
Away
40.4% (156)
44.9% (356)
By Period
O'Reilly
Eller
P1
56.5%
50.0%
P2
40.4%
41.3%
P3
36.3%
47.4%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
35.2%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
44.8%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | OT | 01:23 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 01:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |