Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.7%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Eller 53.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 73.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 77.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 52.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Pavelski
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Eller
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Pavelski
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Pavelski
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
53.8% (865)
-1.5%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
57.1% (21)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
52.6% (137)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Eller is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Eller
Home
54.2% (360)
56.4% (486)
Away
52.6% (329)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Pavelski
Eller
P1
54.5%
55.1%
P2
56.7%
55.3%
P3
50.8%
51.7%
OT
30.8%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |