Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Connolly 47.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 72.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 59.6%
Neutral zone
Connolly 50.4%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Eller
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Eller
Connolly
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Eller
Connolly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
4
5
Eller
Connolly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
47.4% (1,307)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
50.2% (251)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
41.9% (186)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Eller shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Eller
Connolly
Home
51.4% (6,118)
48.5% (870)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Eller
Connolly
P1
51.2%
47.4%
P2
50.1%
47.7%
P3
50.2%
47.0%
OT
56.7%
37.8%
Final 5 min
49.6%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 02:26 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 09:02 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 17:29 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |