Scouting Report
Evgeny Kuznetsov holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 45.6% vs Carlsson 37.1% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 77.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 67.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 74.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
Last 8: Kuznetsov 2-6 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
2
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
2
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (613)
34.4% (535)
+10.0%
Power Play
58.8% (68)
42.9% (21)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (66)
40.0% (5)
-3.6%
On power play, Kuznetsov has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
Home
48.6% (370)
38.6% (254)
Away
41.4% (377)
31.6% (307)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Carlsson
P1
44.3%
35.9%
P2
49.6%
33.8%
P3
41.4%
34.3%
OT
42.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
41.1%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
45.0%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 16:17 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:38 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |