Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.6%). Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Ford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Ford 47.9% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 60.4%
Defensive zone
Ford 53.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Carlsson
Ford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Ford
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Ford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
2
Carlsson
Ford
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ford
0
2
Carlsson
Ford
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Ford
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
45.1% (51)
+0.4%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
100.0% (1)
-53.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
38.5% (13)
-5.2%
On power play, Ford has a +53.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ford shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Ford is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Ford
Home
42.5% (428)
35.7% (14)
Away
46.4% (399)
47.1% (51)
By Period
Carlsson
Ford
P1
45.4%
50.0%
P2
39.7%
52.0%
P3
48.5%
31.8%
Final 5 min
39.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Ford
44.0%▬
44.6%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Parker Ford |