Scouting Report
Parker Ford holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Ford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Ford 47.9% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 62.1%
Defensive zone
Ford 50.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Carlsson
Ford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Ford
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Ford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
2
Carlsson
Ford
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ford
0
2
Carlsson
Ford
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Ford
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
45.1% (51)
-4.1%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
100.0% (1)
-57.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
38.5% (13)
-3.5%
On power play, Ford has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ford shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Ford is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Ford
Home
42.2% (1,044)
35.7% (14)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
47.1% (51)
By Period
Carlsson
Ford
P1
43.3%
50.0%
P2
36.5%
52.0%
P3
43.2%
31.8%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Ford
44.0%▬
44.6%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Parker Ford |