Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 45.0%). Look for Byfield on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Byfield 45.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 65.9%
Defensive zone
Byfield 59.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Carlsson
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Byfield
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Byfield
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
1
Carlsson
Byfield
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Byfield
2
3
Carlsson
Byfield
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
46.5% (759)
-1.0%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
50.0% (58)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
35.1% (148)
-1.8%
On power play, Byfield has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Byfield
Home
42.5% (428)
46.2% (442)
Away
46.4% (399)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Carlsson
Byfield
P1
45.4%
44.1%
P2
39.7%
43.5%
P3
48.5%
47.7%
OT
41.7%
39.3%
Final 5 min
39.0%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:32 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |