Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Thomas 51.9% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 52.0%
Defensive zone
Thomas 54.5%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Carlsson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Carlsson
Thomas
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
4
Carlsson
Thomas
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
50.3% (652)
-5.3%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
61.5% (104)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
54.2% (120)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thomas
Home
42.5% (435)
52.0% (400)
Away
45.5% (429)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Carlsson
Thomas
P1
45.3%
49.6%
P2
38.7%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
51.0%
OT
41.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
38.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |