Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Thomas 54.5% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 65.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 66.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Carlsson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Carlsson
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Carlsson
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
55.3% (990)
-13.5%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
54.2% (190)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
52.5% (158)
-13.8%
On power play, Thomas has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thomas
Home
44.5% (362)
55.1% (690)
Away
38.3% (368)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Carlsson
Thomas
P1
46.3%
55.5%
P2
35.1%
56.4%
P3
43.9%
51.5%
OT
33.3%
69.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
41.4%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |