Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.3%). Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Greene 45.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 63.5%
Defensive zone
Greene 63.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 50.1%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Carlsson
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carlsson
Greene
Last 6: Carlsson 4-2 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
2
Carlsson
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Greene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
44.1% (506)
+1.4%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
47.5% (59)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
43.6% (149)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Greene has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Greene is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Greene
Home
42.5% (428)
47.4% (382)
Away
46.4% (399)
40.7% (332)
By Period
Carlsson
Greene
P1
45.4%
47.2%
P2
39.7%
39.0%
P3
48.5%
47.0%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |