Scouting Report
Ryan Greene holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Greene 44.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.0%
Defensive zone
Greene 77.0%
Neutral zone
Greene 65.7%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Carlsson
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carlsson
Greene
Last 6: Carlsson 4-2 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
2
Carlsson
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Greene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
43.7% (524)
-2.7%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
47.5% (59)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
43.6% (149)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Greene has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Greene
Home
42.2% (1,044)
47.4% (382)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
40.3% (350)
By Period
Carlsson
Greene
P1
43.3%
46.4%
P2
36.5%
38.9%
P3
43.2%
47.0%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |