Scouting Report
Leo Komarov holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Komarov wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 49.7% vs MacKinnon 47.5% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Komarov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Komarov
MacKinnon
Last 7: Komarov 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Komarov
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
2
1
Komarov
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (159)
45.2% (365)
+8.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
57.1% (63)
-57.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Komarov is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Komarov shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Komarov
MacKinnon
Home
48.6% (107)
48.0% (225)
Away
50.6% (85)
45.8% (203)
By Period
Komarov
MacKinnon
P1
44.8%
41.1%
P2
50.0%
49.6%
P3
53.0%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.2%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
49.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2014 | OT | 01:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 10:56 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |