Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Komarov wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 46.7% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.9%
Defensive zone
Komarov 61.5%
Neutral zone
Komarov 57.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Komarov
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Komarov
O'Reilly
Last 7: Komarov 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Komarov
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Komarov
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Komarov
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (56)
57.9% (1,179)
-15.0%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
63.0% (292)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (139)
53.8% (320)
-7.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Komarov is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (123).
Komarov shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Komarov
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (103)
61.3% (884)
Away
40.4% (99)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Komarov
O'Reilly
P1
49.1%
55.5%
P2
39.0%
61.0%
P3
49.3%
56.8%
OT
33.3%
67.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
45.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2017 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |