Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Komarov wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 47.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.0%
Defensive zone
Komarov 54.2%
Neutral zone
Komarov 50.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Komarov
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Komarov
O'Reilly
Last 10: Komarov 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Komarov
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Komarov
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Komarov
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (695)
56.2% (15,103)
-7.6%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
58.7% (3,395)
-21.2%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (417)
51.6% (2,769)
-6.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Komarov is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Komarov shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Komarov
O'Reilly
Home
49.2% (537)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
45.7% (591)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Komarov
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
55.5%
P2
47.3%
57.0%
P3
47.5%
55.2%
OT
41.2%
62.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
47.3%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Apr 3, 2017 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |