Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.9%). Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Draisaitl 54.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 73.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 62.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Stepan
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Stepan
Draisaitl
Last 7: Stepan 2-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
5
Stepan
Draisaitl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
52.4% (974)
+2.9%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
59.5% (373)
-59.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
61.0% (123)
-10.2%
On power play, Draisaitl has a +59.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Stepan
Draisaitl
Home
57.7% (213)
54.5% (778)
Away
50.7% (209)
55.3% (692)
By Period
Stepan
Draisaitl
P1
56.3%
54.6%
P2
48.9%
56.1%
P3
57.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:43 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 02:25 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |