Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Brown shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Brown 43.3% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 69.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Stepan
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Brown
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
1
Stepan
Brown
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Brown
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
39.2% (166)
+15.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
100.0% (1)
-100.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
0.0% (1)
+64.7%
On power play, Brown has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Brown is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
Stepan
Brown
Home
54.5% (222)
36.5% (85)
Away
57.2% (222)
42.2% (83)
By Period
Stepan
Brown
P1
57.5%
42.1%
P2
54.7%
29.1%
P3
55.9%
46.4%
Final 5 min
57.5%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Brown
34.0%▼
36.0%
39.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Logan Brown |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Logan Brown |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |