Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 47.3% vs Monahan 51.3% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 69.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 78.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 76.3%
23.7%
76.3%
Foligno
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Foligno
Monahan
Last 7: Foligno 5-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
0
Foligno
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (553)
51.1% (11,356)
-3.5%
Power Play
56.3% (64)
53.7% (2,580)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
34.2% (76)
46.0% (766)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Foligno is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Foligno shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Foligno
Monahan
Home
46.0% (365)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
47.9% (328)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Foligno
Monahan
P1
48.7%
50.9%
P2
49.8%
51.7%
P3
42.7%
51.0%
OT
36.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
46.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |