Scouting Report
Mark Arcobello holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Arcobello on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Arcobello 53.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 86.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 77.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Stepan
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Stepan
Arcobello
Last 6: Stepan 1-5 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
0
3
Stepan
Arcobello
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Arcobello
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arcobello
0
2
Stepan
Arcobello
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
50.5% (196)
-3.9%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
70.0% (40)
-23.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
83.3% (6)
-35.8%
On penalty kill, Arcobello has a +35.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Stepan is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Stepan shoots right. Arcobello is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
Stepan
Arcobello
Home
47.7% (555)
57.1% (84)
Away
45.6% (548)
53.2% (158)
By Period
Stepan
Arcobello
P1
46.4%
59.7%
P2
45.7%
52.3%
P3
48.5%
51.9%
Final 5 min
46.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |