Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Boqvist wins 40.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boqvist 45.1% vs Kastelic 53.4% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boqvist 75.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 66.2%
Neutral zone
Boqvist 58.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Boqvist
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Boqvist
Kastelic
Last 7: Boqvist 3-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Boqvist
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Boqvist
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boqvist
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (148)
55.4% (345)
-11.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.0% (4)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (15)
35.3% (17)
-8.6%
On even strength, Kastelic has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Boqvist is 40.6% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Boqvist shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Boqvist
Kastelic
Home
43.0% (93)
50.6% (162)
Away
41.3% (75)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Boqvist
Kastelic
P1
55.9%
61.5%
P2
37.3%
52.8%
P3
31.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boqvist
32.0%▼
39.0%
42.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:07 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 03:02 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |