Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.5% vs 45.9%). Look for Nash on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Erat wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 47.0% vs Nash 46.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 56.3%
Defensive zone
Erat 62.6%
Neutral zone
Nash 52.7%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Erat
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Erat
Nash
Last 5: Erat 2-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Erat
Nash
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Erat
1
0
Erat
Nash
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Erat
Nash
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (180)
46.0% (615)
-1.6%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
58.6% (29)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
27.3% (22)
+32.7%
On penalty kill, Erat has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Erat is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Erat shoots left. Nash is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Erat
Nash
Home
51.9% (129)
54.1% (320)
Away
35.7% (84)
38.4% (346)
By Period
Erat
Nash
P1
44.4%
44.8%
P2
45.9%
47.5%
P3
47.2%
44.9%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:46 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Riley Nash |