Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Erat wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 46.8% vs Nash 48.5% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 78.4%
Defensive zone
Nash 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nash 50.1%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Erat
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Erat
Nash
Last 5: Erat 2-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Erat
Nash
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Erat
1
0
Erat
Nash
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Erat
Nash
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
48.7% (4,621)
-2.0%
Power Play
45.5% (101)
51.0% (249)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (29)
44.9% (550)
-3.5%
On power play, Nash has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Erat is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Erat shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Erat
Nash
Home
53.2% (252)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
37.2% (199)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Erat
Nash
P1
43.4%
49.0%
P2
45.8%
47.9%
P3
50.0%
48.0%
OT
16.7%
68.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:46 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Riley Nash |