Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Erat wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 47.0% vs Johnson 48.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 50.7%
Defensive zone
Johnson 60.0%
Neutral zone
Johnson 61.3%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Erat
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Erat
Johnson
Last 5: Erat 3-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Erat
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
3
1
Erat
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (180)
48.7% (941)
-4.3%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
49.6% (133)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
44.8% (201)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Erat has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Erat is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Erat shoots left. Johnson is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (862).
Home / Away
Erat
Johnson
Home
51.9% (129)
50.5% (588)
Away
35.7% (84)
46.1% (687)
By Period
Erat
Johnson
P1
44.4%
49.4%
P2
45.9%
47.3%
P3
47.2%
48.1%
OT
25.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 00:57 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Martin Erat |