Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Erat wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 46.8% vs Johnson 49.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 55.9%
Defensive zone
Johnson 73.2%
Neutral zone
Johnson 62.2%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Erat
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Erat
Johnson
Last 5: Erat 3-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Erat
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
3
1
Erat
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
49.8% (5,396)
-3.1%
Power Play
45.5% (101)
54.6% (885)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (29)
42.3% (707)
-0.9%
On power play, Johnson has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Erat is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Erat shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Erat
Johnson
Home
53.2% (252)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
37.2% (199)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Erat
Johnson
P1
43.4%
50.1%
P2
45.8%
50.6%
P3
50.0%
48.4%
OT
16.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 00:57 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Martin Erat |