Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Reasoner wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reasoner 54.2% vs Gaustad 59.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reasoner 64.3%
Defensive zone
Reasoner 61.0%
Neutral zone
Reasoner 62.6%
Result
Marty Reasoner favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Reasoner
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Reasoner
Gaustad
Last 9: Reasoner 2-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Reasoner
Gaustad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Reasoner
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Reasoner
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reasoner
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (923)
58.6% (790)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
66.7% (93)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (278)
61.0% (269)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Reasoner is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Reasoner shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Reasoner
Gaustad
Home
56.9% (627)
60.6% (554)
Away
52.2% (657)
58.9% (604)
By Period
Reasoner
Gaustad
P1
52.9%
61.3%
P2
53.8%
55.5%
P3
57.1%
62.3%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reasoner
50.0%▼
52.5%
54.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2011 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 25, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2011 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2011 | 2 | 18:38 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Feb 10, 2011 | 2 | 12:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |