Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Marner 43.1% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 65.5%
Defensive zone
McTavish 56.1%
Neutral zone
McTavish 69.9%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
McTavish
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McTavish
Marner
Last 7: McTavish 4-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
0
McTavish
Marner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
McTavish
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Marner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
41.5% (282)
+6.1%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
40.0% (5)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
25.0% (12)
+8.3%
On power play, McTavish has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
McTavish
Marner
Home
52.2% (389)
36.1% (158)
Away
45.1% (335)
46.1% (141)
By Period
McTavish
Marner
P1
50.0%
41.6%
P2
47.9%
40.2%
P3
49.0%
40.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |