Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Johansen 53.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 23-9 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 95.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 94.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 95.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 95.7%
95.7%
4.3%
Barzal
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
23
(32 meetings)
9
23
Barzal
Johansen
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
4
Barzal
Johansen
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
6
Barzal
Johansen
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
13
Barzal
Johansen
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
53.1% (11,017)
-11.2%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
56.2% (2,163)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
50.5% (978)
-8.2%
On power play, Johansen has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Barzal
Johansen
Home
43.1% (1,895)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Barzal
Johansen
P1
40.7%
53.2%
P2
44.4%
53.9%
P3
41.0%
52.8%
OT
27.6%
58.2%
Final 5 min
39.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 07:26 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 14:05 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:23 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 18:37 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 04:16 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |