Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +23.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 26.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs Johansen 58.2% (-23.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 72.7%
Defensive zone
Johansen 52.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 61.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Barzal
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Barzal
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Barzal
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
59.8% (625)
-24.8%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
58.2% (196)
-2.6%
On even strength, Johansen has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Barzal is 26.8% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Barzal shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Barzal
Johansen
Home
37.0% (138)
60.3% (436)
Away
34.4% (154)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Barzal
Johansen
P1
29.5%
61.3%
P2
44.5%
60.4%
P3
31.8%
56.0%
OT
0.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
39.1%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |