Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Couturier 53.2% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 90.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 74.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 84.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Barzal
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Barzal
Couturier
Last 10: Barzal 1-9 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Barzal
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
4
Barzal
Couturier
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
2
5
Barzal
Couturier
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
53.4% (758)
-13.0%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
62.9% (70)
-28.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
50.7% (227)
-22.1%
On power play, Couturier has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Barzal
Couturier
Home
38.1% (244)
50.7% (517)
Away
41.3% (264)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Barzal
Couturier
P1
46.6%
55.2%
P2
35.7%
53.0%
P3
37.7%
53.3%
OT
0.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
40.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:42 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:12 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |