Scouting Report
Matt Cullen holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cogliano on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Cogliano wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cullen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs Cullen 53.0% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cullen 65.2%
Defensive zone
Cullen 72.9%
Neutral zone
Cullen 78.3%
Result
Matt Cullen favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Cogliano
Cullen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cogliano
Cullen
Last 7: Cogliano 4-3 Cullen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Cullen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cullen
0
1
Cogliano
Cullen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
3
2
Cogliano
Cullen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Cullen
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
56.0% (915)
-11.8%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
43.1% (116)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
43.6% (133)
-7.8%
On even strength, Cullen has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cullen shoots left. Cogliano is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Cogliano shoots left. Cullen is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (819).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Cullen
Home
50.0% (188)
56.9% (559)
Away
34.3% (198)
49.9% (619)
By Period
Cogliano
Cullen
P1
44.0%
56.6%
P2
41.3%
51.6%
P3
40.5%
50.5%
OT
44.4%
69.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
Cullen
58.0%▲
53.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2011 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Matt Cullen |
| Dec 4, 2011 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 4, 2011 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 1 | 08:47 | Neutral | Matt Cullen |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Matt Cullen |