Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 50.8% vs Duchene 54.9% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McKegg 53.8%
Defensive zone
McKegg 64.3%
Neutral zone
McKegg 62.4%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
McKegg
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
McKegg
Duchene
Last 10: McKegg 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McKegg
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McKegg
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
McKegg
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (281)
55.4% (1,013)
-3.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
56.3% (192)
-31.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
41.2% (17)
-41.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +41.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McKegg is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (198).
McKegg shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
McKegg
Duchene
Home
51.1% (133)
56.2% (642)
Away
51.0% (153)
54.3% (580)
By Period
McKegg
Duchene
P1
48.9%
56.2%
P2
48.9%
56.5%
P3
54.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.6%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
51.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2019 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |