Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.2%). Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 28-26 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 54.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 53.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Spezza
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
26
(54 meetings)
28
26
Spezza
Duchene
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
15
11
Spezza
Duchene
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
10
Spezza
Duchene
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
5
Spezza
Duchene
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
54.0% (10,249)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.9% (1,620)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
49.3% (467)
+3.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Home / Away
Spezza
Duchene
Home
56.8% (5,066)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Spezza
Duchene
P1
55.7%
54.5%
P2
54.4%
54.5%
P3
54.1%
53.4%
OT
51.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 01:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 10:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 1 | 06:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |