Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Duchene 50.3% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 79.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 59.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 59.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Spezza
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Spezza
Duchene
Last 5: Spezza 4-1 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (1,097)
49.4% (933)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.8% (250)
58.7% (104)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (89)
47.6% (21)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Spezza shoots right. Duchene is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Spezza
Duchene
Home
55.8% (695)
51.9% (534)
Away
52.2% (741)
48.7% (524)
By Period
Spezza
Duchene
P1
50.3%
51.0%
P2
54.7%
48.8%
P3
56.0%
50.6%
OT
73.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2014 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |