Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Duchene 50.4% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 71.9%
Defensive zone
Thornton 72.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 72.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Thornton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Thornton
Duchene
Last 10: Thornton 8-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Thornton
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
0
Thornton
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
50.5% (1,070)
+2.3%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
49.3% (136)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
50.0% (20)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Thornton shoots left. Duchene is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
Thornton
Duchene
Home
54.9% (597)
49.8% (633)
Away
54.0% (643)
51.1% (613)
By Period
Thornton
Duchene
P1
53.0%
51.0%
P2
51.2%
51.5%
P3
57.8%
49.1%
OT
72.7%
36.8%
Final 5 min
59.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 05:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 2 | 19:30 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |