Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.4% vs 50.9%). Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.4% vs Lapierre 50.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.6%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 67.3%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 51.8%
Result
Maxim Lapierre favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Duchene
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Lapierre
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
0
1
Duchene
Lapierre
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Lapierre
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (1,070)
53.9% (280)
-3.4%
Power Play
49.3% (136)
30.0% (10)
+19.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
34.9% (43)
+15.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots right. Duchene is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Duchene shoots left. Lapierre is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Duchene
Lapierre
Home
49.8% (633)
50.3% (165)
Away
51.1% (613)
51.4% (175)
By Period
Duchene
Lapierre
P1
51.0%
53.9%
P2
51.5%
46.1%
P3
49.1%
52.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Lapierre
56.0%▬
55.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 11:50 | Neutral | Maxim Lapierre |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |