Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lapierre on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lapierre shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Lapierre 51.3% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 17-13 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.6%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 72.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Duchene
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
13
(30 meetings)
17
13
Duchene
Lapierre
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
2
Duchene
Lapierre
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
2
9
Duchene
Lapierre
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
2
Duchene
Lapierre
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
52.9% (2,085)
+1.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
53.1% (32)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
43.1% (415)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Lapierre is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,731).
Home / Away
Duchene
Lapierre
Home
55.6% (6,411)
53.0% (1,250)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
49.8% (1,289)
By Period
Duchene
Lapierre
P1
54.5%
52.5%
P2
54.5%
50.7%
P3
53.4%
51.1%
OT
56.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Lapierre
56.0%▬
55.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2015 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | Maxim Lapierre |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 3 | 03:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Jan 30, 2013 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |
| Jan 30, 2013 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |