Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Richards 49.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 57.0%
Defensive zone
Richards 51.7%
Neutral zone
Richards 53.3%
Result
Mike Richards favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Duchene
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Duchene
Richards
Last 9: Duchene 4-5 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Richards
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
1
2
Duchene
Richards
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
0
1
Duchene
Richards
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
50.0% (370)
+6.8%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
50.0% (30)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
39.0% (41)
+3.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Richards is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Duchene
Richards
Home
56.6% (488)
52.3% (214)
Away
52.3% (405)
45.8% (227)
By Period
Duchene
Richards
P1
52.0%
47.3%
P2
53.7%
53.2%
P3
58.5%
46.3%
OT
46.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 10:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Mike Richards |