Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Richards 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Richards leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.3%
Defensive zone
Richards 59.8%
Neutral zone
Richards 52.2%
Result
Mike Richards favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Duchene
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Duchene
Richards
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
4
Duchene
Richards
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
1
4
Duchene
Richards
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
3
Duchene
Richards
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.0% (3,722)
+3.9%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
54.6% (445)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
51.4% (502)
-2.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Richards is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,122).
Home / Away
Duchene
Richards
Home
55.6% (6,411)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Duchene
Richards
P1
54.5%
49.6%
P2
54.5%
52.3%
P3
53.4%
49.3%
OT
56.3%
58.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2016 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 1, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 1, 2016 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2013 | OT | 01:14 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:37 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 10:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 3 | 05:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |