Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 35 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 43-30 in 73 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 70.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Duchene
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
43
(73 meetings)
30
43
Duchene
Gaustad
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
17
5
Duchene
Gaustad
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
8
27
Duchene
Gaustad
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
11
Duchene
Gaustad
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
65.4% (188)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
54.8% (1,290)
-5.7%
On power play, Gaustad has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Duchene
Gaustad
Home
55.6% (6,411)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Duchene
Gaustad
P1
54.5%
58.2%
P2
54.5%
56.4%
P3
53.4%
58.3%
OT
56.3%
66.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 18:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 09:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 16:36 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |