Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Horak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Horak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Horak 46.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horak 52.9%
Defensive zone
Horak 61.0%
Neutral zone
Horak 54.1%
Result
Roman Horak favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Duchene
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Duchene
Horak
Last 5: Duchene 2-3 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Horak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horak
0
3
Duchene
Horak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
44.4% (189)
+12.4%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
45.5% (11)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
80.0% (5)
-37.7%
On penalty kill, Horak has a +37.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Horak is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Duchene
Horak
Home
56.6% (488)
49.5% (93)
Away
52.3% (405)
42.0% (112)
By Period
Duchene
Horak
P1
52.0%
41.7%
P2
53.7%
51.5%
P3
58.5%
44.6%
OT
46.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Roman Horak |