Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Horak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Horak 43.9% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Duchene
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Duchene
Horak
Last 9: Duchene 5-4 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Horak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horak
1
3
Duchene
Horak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Horak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
41.8% (594)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
51.4% (37)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
57.9% (19)
-8.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (417).
Home / Away
Duchene
Horak
Home
55.6% (6,411)
43.7% (325)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
42.2% (327)
By Period
Duchene
Horak
P1
54.5%
42.4%
P2
54.5%
44.2%
P3
53.4%
42.6%
OT
56.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 13:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 13:07 | Offensive | Roman Horak |